{"id":45168,"date":"2026-06-17T11:24:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/?p=45168"},"modified":"2026-06-17T11:24:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:24:12","slug":"global-seismic-risk-gem-models-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/en\/global-seismic-risk-gem-models-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Seismic Risk: GEM Foundation Introduces Next-Generation 2026 Products in Zagreb"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"l-section wpb_row height_custom\"><div class=\"l-section-h i-cf\"><div class=\"g-cols vc_row via_grid cols_1 laptops-cols_inherit tablets-cols_inherit mobiles-cols_1 valign_top type_default stacking_default\"><div class=\"wpb_column vc_column_container\"><div class=\"vc_column-inner\"><div class=\"w-image align_center\"><div class=\"w-image-h\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-768x501.jpg\" class=\"attachment-us_768_0 size-us_768_0\" alt=\"mappa rischio globale GEM\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-768x501.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-653x426.jpg 653w, https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-1354x883.jpg 1354w, https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-600x391.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale-100x65.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.eucentre.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/mappa-rischio-globale.jpg 1663w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vc_empty_space\"   style=\"height: 32px\"><span class=\"vc_empty_space_inner\"><\/span><\/div><div class=\"wpb_text_column\"><div class=\"wpb_wrapper\"><div class=\"_chunkWrapper_6ta1u_30\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"_chunkWrapper_6ta1u_30\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p data-path-to-node=\"35\">On 23 June 2026, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b data-path-to-node=\"35\" data-index-in-node=\"21\">GEM Foundation<\/b><\/a> will officially unveil a next-generation suite of global products for seismic hazard and <b data-path-to-node=\"35\" data-index-in-node=\"125\">global seismic risk<\/b> assessment. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grad.unizg.hr\/en\/o_fakultetu\/ustroj_fakulteta\/zavodi\/hcpi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Croatian Centre for Earthquake Engineering<\/em><\/a> at the University of Zagreb will host the GEM Conference 2026, scheduled from 23 to 25 June.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"36\">The opening day, featuring the formal release of these advanced global models, will be fully accessible via live streaming for international professionals, academics, and policymakers.<\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"37\">A Quantum Leap from the 2018 Framework<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"38\">The 2026 release represents a profound technological and methodological evolution compared to the initial global framework established in 2018. While the 2018 iteration provided the first open, unified overview of planetary seismic hazards, the newly developed models critically extend the analytical boundaries of risk engineering.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"39\">The updated framework shifts from basic ground-shaking metrics and structural damage estimates to a multi-dimensional analysis. The 2026 suite incorporates the following:<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"40\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"40,0,0\">Systemic vulnerability assessments of linear infrastructure networks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"40,1,0\">Forward-looking, long-term risk projection scenarios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"40,2,0\">Indirect environmental impacts, specifically quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in post-earthquake demolition, waste management, and reconstruction phases.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-path-to-node=\"41\">\n<p data-path-to-node=\"41,0\">&#8220;<em>The 2026 products are not simply updated maps. They demonstrate that seismic risk is dynamic and multi-dimensional,<\/em>&#8221; stated Helen Crowley, Secretary General of the GEM Foundation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"42\">Ocean Coverage and Advanced Probabilistic Hazard Modelling<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"43\">From a rigorous scientific perspective, a key breakthrough lies in the new global <b data-path-to-node=\"43\" data-index-in-node=\"82\">seismic hazard<\/b> map. For the first time, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) encompasses the entire surface of the globe, explicitly incorporating oceanic regions.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"44\">This geometric and computational expansion resolves a critical limitation in classical risk forecasting. Integrating ocean data enables a more precise definition of seismogenic sources, enhancing the fidelity of risk models for offshore infrastructure, marine facilities, and coastal areas. As noted by Marco Pagani, Head of Seismic Hazard at GEM, robust hazard science remains the indispensable foundation for any reliable impact or risk evaluation.<\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"45\">Infrastructure Transport Vulnerability: Road Network Liquefaction<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"46\">A pivotal feature for structural engineers and urban planners is the first-ever global analysis of road network exposure to earthquake-induced soil liquefaction. This phenomenon occurs when saturated, uncohesive soils experience a rapid rise in pore water pressure during seismic shaking, leading to a transient loss of shear strength.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"47\">The disruption of critical transport corridors triggers severe cascading effects on regional functionality:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-path-to-node=\"48\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"48,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"48,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Emergency Response Impediment:<\/b> Emergency services are restricted or blocked during the critical golden hours following an event.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"48,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"48,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Supply Chain Disruption:<\/b> Immediate economic isolation of affected regions due to infrastructure failure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"48,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"48,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Prolonged Recovery Timelines:<\/b> Substantial inflation of both time and financial expenditure is required for post-disaster recovery and logistics.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"49\">Sustainable Structural Engineering: The Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"50\">Modern structural engineering must increasingly balance life safety with environmental sustainability. The newly introduced <b data-path-to-node=\"50\" data-index-in-node=\"124\">Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map<\/b> quantifies projected greenhouse gas emissions from post-earthquake phases, including structural damage, demolition, debris haulage, and reconstruction materials.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"51\">This tool introduces an environmental metric into standard risk mitigation pipelines. Asset managers and public bodies can now leverage quantitative data to justify the environmental return on investment (ROI) of proactive seismic retrofitting, effectively lowering the long-term carbon footprint associated with structural failures.<\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"52\">Forward-Looking Projections (2045\u20132065) and Uncertainty Management<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"53\">The 2026 release concludes with predictive risk scenarios mapped to 2045 and 2065 timelines. These models utilise future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to simulate how shifting population dynamics, urban sprawl, structural ageing, and evolving building codes alter the global risk profile over the coming decades.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"54\">Vitor Silva, Head of Risk Engineering at GEM, emphasised that managing the epistemic uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasting demands complete transparency. The models are built using GEM\u2019s open-source <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/product\/openquake-engine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>OpenQuake Engine<\/strong><\/a>, which allows researchers around the world to check, confirm, and adjust the basic engineering ideas to fit their local needs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_chunkWrapper_6ta1u_30\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"0\">Event page: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/gemevents\/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"15\">https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/gemeven<\/span><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"55\">ts\/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-fut<\/span><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"95\">ure-scenarios<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"95\">Products: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"119\">https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/product<\/span><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"159\">s<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"159\">Media contact: <\/span><span class=\"_animating_6ta1u_10\" data-newtext-seq=\"177\">communication@globalquakemodel.org<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><div class=\"w-html\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">\n{\n  \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\n  \"@graph\": [\n    {\n      \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n      \"@id\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/products#newsarticle\",\n      \"isPartOf\": {\n        \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n        \"@id\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/products\"\n      },\n      \"headline\": \"GEM Foundation presenta a Zagabria la nuova generazione di prodotti globali per il rischio sismico\",\n      \"description\": \"GEM Foundation rilascia i nuovi modelli 2026 per il rischio sismico globale, integrando analisi su infrastrutture, liquefazione ed emissioni di CO2.\",\n      \"datePublished\": \"2026-06-17T09:00:00+02:00\",\n      \"dateModified\": \"2026-06-17T09:30:00+02:00\",\n      \"mainEntityOfPage\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/gemevents\/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios\",\n      \"author\": {\n        \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n        \"name\": \"GEM Foundation\",\n        \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\"\n      },\n      \"publisher\": {\n        \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n        \"name\": \"GEM Foundation\",\n        \"logo\": {\n          \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n          \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/logo.png\"\n        }\n      }\n    },\n    {\n      \"@type\": \"FAQPage\",\n      \"@id\": \"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/products#faq\",\n      \"mainEntity\": [\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Quali sono le principali novit\u00e0 dei modelli di rischio sismico GEM 2026?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"I modelli 2026 estendono la pericolosit\u00e0 probabilistica agli oceani e introducono l'analisi della liquefazione delle reti stradali e la Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map per calcolare le emissioni da ricostruzione.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Cos'\u00e8 la Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"\u00c8 uno strumento innovativo che stima le emissioni di gas serra derivanti dai danni, dalle demolizioni, dalla gestione delle macerie e dalla ricostruzione post-terremoto.\"\n          }\n        }\n      ]\n    }\n  ]\n}\n<\/script><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On 23 June 2026, the GEM Foundation will officially unveil a next-generation suite of global products for seismic hazard and global seismic risk assessment. The Croatian Centre for Earthquake Engineering at the University of Zagreb will host the GEM Conference 2026, scheduled from 23 to 25 June. The opening day, featuring the formal release of...","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":45167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[189,191],"tags":[395,509],"class_list":["post-45168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-news-en","tag-rischio-sismico-en","tag-seismic-risk"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Seismic Risk: GEM Foundation Launches 2026 Models<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore GEM Foundation&#039;s next-generation global seismic risk products. 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