PEC Project | Progetto Pec | Eucentre Foundation
ENDED IN 2017

Post-Emergency, multi-hazard health risk assessment in Chemical disasters (PEC) was a prevention and preparedness project funded by the Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (DG ECHO) of the European Commission, aiming at developing and implementing an integrated model for rapid multi-hazard health risk assessment applicable to chemical release incidents that occurred during major natural or man-made disasters.
Under this perspective, the main problem targeted by PEC was the assessment of the impact on human health due to exposure to chemical agents originating either from natural or man-made disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, or terrorist attacks that affected chemical plant structures and infrastructures, leading to the accidental release of large amounts of toxic chemicals into the environment.

Fondazione Eucentre - Progetto PEC
Fondazione Eucentre - Progetto PEC

he PEC method and tools were applied to a case study area located in the south-eastern part of Sicily (Italy).
Immediate and long-term population health impacts of the toxic chemicals absorbed either individually or in combination were determined and quantified according to:

  • characteristics (type and intensity) of the initial disaster,
  • degree of vulnerability of buildings and infrastructures,
  • quantity of chemicals stored/handled in the plants, magnitude of their dispersion into the environment, and levels of chemical contamination in the disaster area.

For each type of hazard considered in the project, its determinants were identified and estimated using statistical and physics-based models (for natural events) and expert judgement including historical databases (for man-made events).
Risk evaluation of natural or man-made disasters was carried out by techniques of quantitative risk analysis, coupling the probability of occurrence for both initiating and intermediate events along the risk chain with quantitative estimates of consequences.
Environmental contamination from toxic elements and population exposure were modelled through state-of-the-art atmospheric dispersion models coupled with an enhanced multimedia model used for regulatory monitoring and compliance purposes, to derive concentration levels of toxicants in different environmental media (i.e. surface and groundwater, soil and air) and the food web.

Exposure was assessed by estimating the total daily intake of toxicants based on their predicted environmental concentrations. Internal exposure was derived using in silico methods (PBTK, exposome-oriented approaches), resulting in the quantitative estimation of toxicants in human tissue.

Likelihood and severity of predicted effects were estimated in terms of number of persons affected, short-term mortality, overall morbidity, prevalence of local irritation symptoms, and organ/system morbidity requiring hospitalisation.

Finally, results obtained from the simulated incident were validated against clinical data obtained from published case reports and practical experience in medical toxicology and emergency medicine.

Fondazione Eucentre - Progetto PEC